Six Predictions for 2007
Having left it a week, our predictions for 2007 reap the benefit of reading everybody else's. That won't make them any less wrong than any of our sources once we get to December, though...
Predictions for the new year
have a lengthy and dishonourable tradition, risky and
irrational as they are. I think the hope must be that by the
time you're proved wrong, it won't matter. The post will
buried so far in the distant past that anyone who brings up the
point that you said the world would be taken over by armadillos
looks like a tiresome pedant. Nonetheless, this being my first
post for the NMK site, I've decided to attempt to avoid all
possibility of disgrace by stealing the best bits from other
peoples' lists.
1.
The Social Networks
Backlash. It's a brave person that would promise that
this will happen, but it may be the case that the largest,
highest-profile social network of them all, MySpace, is heading
for a fall. In the
words of Danah Boyd, the biggest site on the Internet has
turned into a "massive zit full of marketing pus". If
the amount of spam, fake accounts and advertising means that
it's hard to do what you want to do: communicate with
friends and customise your space, then many users are likely to
seek alternatives. The emergence and success of vertical social
networks catering for particular geographical locations and
interest groups also seems inevitable. While massive networks
offer the convenience of being more likely to allow connection
to your friends, vertical networks will contain a greater
concentration of the people
you might actually want to be in contact with.
2.
Social is the Norm.
Even if MySpace were to completely disappear, what it and its
fellows have done to people's expectations of web software
is irrevocable. Already, newspapers, broadcasters and magazines
are developing social networks that are embedded into the core
of their structure, promoting their former audience to media
producers. Steve Rubel recently
suggested that because this approach is so pervasive, the
expression 'social media' has already run its course and
that we'll soon stop using it. Given the blank looks I get
from most of my real-life friends when it comes to such
subjects, I reckon that's a little premature. However, the
way websites get built and the way we use the web has already
changed forever.
3.
You Shall be
Widgetised. Even though the very word makes me wince, I
can't help but acknowledge the power of the widget. Those
little doodads sitting in the margins of every blog and social
network profile will also move into mainstream sites. At the
same time, mainstream sites develop their own widgets. The
concept of a web service as a
place starts to erode. This is
already happening. Where is
flickr? Not just at
www.flickr.com, but also in the sidebars of a million websites.
What about the 'people update' service
twitter? Yes,
there's a twitter site, but since friends' updates can
appear anywhere from your mobile phone to your feed reader, the
application is almost completely dispersed.
4.
Interoperability.
There can't be many people who don't want their gmail
log-on to also work with their del.icio.us bookmarks or their
e-bay account. There's already a serious contender for a
single sign-on system in the form of
OpenID and a technology for
managing this in the form of
sxip. The initial offerings
probably won't be entirely secure and they won't work
everywhere, but the demand for some sort of simplification of
how we gain access to our own information is such that the drive
to implement, improve and standardise on these technologies will
be nearly unstoppable. (Thanks to
Tara Hunt for this one.)
5.
The Privacy Panic.
This is the reverse side of the coin to the advantages of
interoperability. As we store more and more about ourselves on
the web, our privacy is necessarily compromised. There are
growing numbers of people who simply don't mind. But there
are also plenty of people who do. As your online identity
spreads to include information ranging from your
exercise schedule to
your pets,
anxieties over security and control over who has access to that
information will spread equally. Individual identity and
reputation control services are already
cropping up. I
believe they'll experience considerable success over the
coming year.
6.
Better Words. OK,
this is a wish rather than a prediction. The field of social
media has some of the worst jargon ever invented. There's
nothing very nice about the word 'blog', for a start.
Face it, it sounds scatological - "don't disturb me,
I'm blogging". I'm also continually made
uncomfortable whenever I come across the term 'mash-up',
which sounds as though it has something to do with school
dinners. 'Widgets' sound like they're pointless and
trivial: they are the plastic things in the bottom of tins of
Guinness and John Smiths bitter, aren't they? Technical
acronyms are normally annoying and this space is no exception.
'RSS' sounds scary which prevents people from becoming
interested in it; 'MSM' and 'RL' are trite and
useless. Still other terms are frankly patronising, like
'user generated content' and 'citizen
journalism'.
Ian Delaney, NMK editor.
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